1. Comparing ...

Original position.
Score   Blue: 2 away   Yellow: 7 away
Move A: 11/4*
Move B: 24/20 23/20
Temp. Map A ( 0.127 )
 123456
1      
2      
3      
4      
5      
6      
Temp. Map B ( 0.262 )
 123456
1      
2      
3      
4      
5      
6      
Temperature Gauge
-0.454 0.440
                
  
Equity Difference Histogram
-0.717 0.000 0.717
0.717   44 
0.475   64 
0.475   64 
0.468   22 
0.464   41 
0.464   41 
0.414   42 
0.414   42 
0.244   62 
0.244   62 
0.234   21 
0.234   21 
0.223   54 
0.223   54 
0.206   32 
0.206   32 
0.199   43 
0.199   43 
0.156   52 
0.156   52 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
 51   -0.005
 51   -0.005
 31   -0.009
 31   -0.009
 63   -0.012
 63   -0.012
 65   -0.019
 65   -0.019
 11   -0.074
 66   -0.081
 55   -0.101
 33   -0.179
 53   -0.237
 53   -0.237
 61   -0.277
 61   -0.277
-0.717 0.000 0.717

Reading Snowie's mind ...

"Just look how uniformly hot you ( Blue ) are after Move B. No matter what Yellow rolls, you are at least favorable.

"On the other hand, you may be seriously damaged after Move A when Yellow rolls 4 (hit the blot) or 2 (anchor), mainly because your race advantage is gone after hit, or your blitz chance virtually disappears if Yellow anchores.

Yellow's dancing after your Move A isn't as much success as it might look, because your 3 and 5 don't do much here, and you may risk a shot one more time."

2. Comparing ...

Move A: 11/4*
Move C: 6/2* 23/20
Temp. Map A ( 0.127 )
 123456
1      
2      
3      
4      
5      
6      
Temp. Map C ( 0.204 )
 123456
1      
2      
3      
4      
5      
6      
Temperature Gauge
-0.540 0.527
                
  
Equity Difference Histogram
-0.316 0.000 0.316
0.316   42 
0.316   42 
0.300   44 
0.175   54 
0.175   54 
0.128   64 
0.128   64 
0.108   62 
0.108   62 
0.097   66 
0.097   65 
0.097   65 
0.097   63 
0.097   63 
0.097   61 
0.097   61 
0.097   55 
0.097   53 
0.097   53 
0.097   51 
0.097   51 
0.097   33 
0.097   31 
0.097   31 
0.097   11 
0.055   43 
0.055   43 
0.039   52 
0.039   52 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
 
 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
 41   -0.043
 41   -0.043
 32   -0.085
 32   -0.085
 22   -0.085
 21   -0.190
 21   -0.190
-0.316 0.000 0.316

Reading Snowie's mind ...

"Probably, the easiest way to decides which hit move is better is compare how strong your position will be after Yellow's 16 dance numbers.

"Let's see how the equity temp-maps and the diff-histogram look like after Yellow's dance from Blue's point of view.

"Have you noticed that you have one anti-joker 55 (trash your own board and almost unable to repair) and two semi-anti-jokers 65 (almost trash your own board), after Move A followed by Yellow's dance? There are no such anti-joker class numbers after Move C.

"It's not easy to see that clear difference in all other rolls, but those anti-joker class rolls after Move A should be good enough to convince you that Move C is superior after all 16 Yellow's dance numbers.

"How about all other Yellow's 20 entering numbers? Yellow's 22 after Move C is bad, but it's also as bad after Move A anyway. Big difference between Move A and Move C comes when Yellow rolls 44 or 42. Yellow's 42 let him accomplish two very good things (hits and makes an anchor) at once after Move A, while it only gives him one choice from the two good things after Move C. 44 is a joker roll for Yellow after Move A, but just a good roll after Move C.

"Putting all those facts together, Move C is clearly better than Move A."

3. Comparing ...

Move C: 6/2* 23/20
Move B: 24/20 23/20
Temp. Map C ( 0.204 )
 123456
1      
2      
3      
4      
5      
6      
Temp. Map B ( 0.262 )
 123456
1      
2      
3      
4      
5      
6      
Temperature Gauge
-0.540 0.527
                
  
Equity Difference Histogram
-0.554 0.000 0.554
0.554   22 
0.508   41 
0.508   41 
0.424   21 
0.424   21 
0.417   44 
0.346   64 
0.346   64 
0.291   32 
0.291   32 
0.144   43 
0.144   43 
0.136   62 
0.136   62 
0.117   52 
0.117   52 
0.098   42 
0.098   42 
0.048   54 
0.048   54 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
 51   -0.102
 51   -0.102
 31   -0.106
 31   -0.106
 63   -0.109
 63   -0.109
 65   -0.116
 65   -0.116
 11   -0.171
 66   -0.177
 55   -0.198
 33   -0.276
 53   -0.334
 53   -0.334
 61   -0.374
 61   -0.374
-0.554 0.000 0.554

Reading Snowie's mind ...

"Among all Yellow's dancing numbers after Move C, you ( Blue ) would be greatly sorry only if Yellow rolls either 61 (hit the outer blot) or 53 (anchor) after Move B.

"On the other hand, if Yellow enters after Move C, with hit or without hit, whatever that entering number is, you would regret that you hadn't made Move B.

"In other words, out of all 36 Yellow's reply numbers, with 20 rolls you will be happier with Move B than Move C, and with 16 rolls you will be happier with Move C than Move B.

"Move B wins."

Complicated, but I think that's most of what Snowie is trying to say.

Created by Sho Sengoku